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Why is America Failing in Afghanistan?

- DR. Abdul-Qayum Mohmand

Analysis of “CIA World Factbook” (1981-2012): Dimensions of anti-Pashtun Conspirac

Afghan Fury at Planned Pakistan Pact
What Happens When the U.S. Leaves Afghanistan?
Trying to leave Afghanistan proves to be as troublesome as being there: A Closer Look
Afghanistan: “It’s Just Damage Limitation Now”
Zero Dark Thirty Review-Analysis; Eleven Instances of Disinformation
Why is America Failing in Afghanistan?
 
 
 
US forces in Afghanistan nearly destroyed vital airfield
We Are Those Two Afghan Children, Killed by NATO While Tending Their Cattle
Former Islamist Warlord Vies for Afghan Presidency
Pakistan releases top Afghan Taliban prisoner in effort to boost peace process
Losing the War in Afghanistan
Obama’s troop increase for Afghan war was misdirected
Afghan security vacuum feared along "gateway to Kabul"
Objections to U.S. Troops Intensify in Afghanistan
The Great Afghan corruption scam
War zone killing: Vets feel 'alone' in their guilt
Was Osama for Real? And Was He Killed in 2001?
Afghanistan withdrawal: The risks of retreat
The Real Reason the US Invaded Afghanistan
The Definition of a Quagmire
Huge Uncertainty' in Afghanistan
Controversial ID Cards Expose Ethnic Divisions In Afghanistan
Afghanistan: The Final Curtain Call for NATO?
Afghanistan After 9/11: A Mission Unaccomplished
Why Should Taliban and Other Insurgents Refrain from Negotiation With the US & NATO? By: Dr Mohammed Daud Miraki, MA, MA, Ph

Exclusive: Karzai family looks to extend boss rule in Afghanistan.

Intrigue in Karzai Family as an Afghan Era Closes
For Afghans, Two Outrages, Two Different Reactions
Double blow to west’s Afghan strategy
Does the Taliban need a diplomatic voice?
Afghanistan: Lessons in War and Peace-building for US
Afghan women opposed by former allies
Q+A - Haqqani: From White House guest to staunch U.S. enemy
Haqqanis: Growth of a militant network -BBC
Afghanistan shelves plans for ambassador accused of fraud
Afghan nominated as ambassador to Britain was accused in US of fraud
U.S. deal with Taliban breaks down
The Loneliness of the Afghan President: Karzai on His Own

NATO's Third Alternative in Afghanistan

On the Road: Interview with Commander Abdul Haq:- The Tragedy of Abdul Haq
When the Lion Roared: How Abdul Haq Almost Saved Afghanistan
AFGHAN WARRIOR: THE LIFE & DEATH OF ABDUL HAQ
Pakistan’s ISI: Undermining Afghan self-determination since 1948
Mineral Wealth of Afghanistan, Military Occupation, Corruption and the Rights of the Afghan People
M. Siddieq Noorzoy
Why Isn’t the UN Investigating and Prosecuting the U.S. and NATO for War Crimes Committed in Afghanistan?
Corruption and Warlordism:
Abdul Basir Stanikzai
In Afghanistan, U.S. contracts aren’t crystal balls, but they come close
The great Afghan carve-up
Anatomy of an Afghan war tragedy
Terry Jones Actually Burns a Qur’an and No One Notices
Q+A-Are Afghan forces ready to take over security?
Guantánamo Bay files rewrite the story of Osama bin Laden's Tora Bora escape
Winning Afghan hearts, minds with explosives
Afghanistan’s Mercenaries
KABUL’S HORIZONS
Who is winning Afghanistan war? U.S. officials increasingly disagree
Afghanistan: The Trouble With The Transition
From the Archives: In Quest of a ‘Greater Tajikistan’
The 1980s mujahideen, the Taliban and the shifting idea of jihad
Afghanistan's Karzai complains about interference
Karzai, US ambassador at odds over private security

Karzai Tells Washington Post U.S. Should Reduce Afghan Operation Intensity

Excerpts from Afghan President Hamid Karzai's interview with The Washington Post
What the Afghans Want
New US approach to Afghanistan insurgency: Vindication for Pakistan?
Putting Some Fight Into Our Friends
Afghans 'abused at secret prison
Why We Won’t Leave Afghanistan or Iraq
Indo-Pakistan proxy war heats up in Afghanistan
Canada’s elite commandos and the invasion of Afghanistan
U.S. retreat from Afghan valley marks recognition of blunder
Five myths about the war in Afghanistan
Marine who resigned over ‘conscience’ speaks at MU
The Afghan media may have grown since Taliban rule ended, but not so press freedoms
Mystery holes and angry ants: another Afghan day
Kabul Bank's Sherkhan Farnood feeds crony capitalism in Afghanistan
Marjah War
Operation Moshtarak: Which way the war in Afghanistan?
Q&A: Why Marjah, why now?
In Jalalabad, hope is fading
Seeking reconciliation, US units meet remote Afghanistan tribes
Once Again, Get the Hell Out! "Ending the War in Afghanistan"
Blackwater Kept a Prostitute on the Payroll in Afghanistan; Fraudulently Billed American Tax Payers
Wild West Motif Lightens US Mood at Afghan Bas
In southern Afghanistan, even the small gains get noticed
 Afghanistan war: US tries to undercut Taliban at tribal level
 Soviet lessons from Afghanistan
Are actions of 'super-tribe' an Afghan tipping point
Taliban: Terrorist or not? Not always easy to say
Q&A: Who else could help in Afghanistan?
Vietnam Replay on Afghan 'Defectors'
Washington's Refusal to Talk about Drone Strikes in Pakistan Meets Growing Opposition
Afghanistan summit: Why is the US backing talks with the Taliban?
Taliban's leadership council runs Afghan war from Pakistan
Why buy the Taliban?
2 Afghanistan conferences: No solutions
An Alternative to Endless War - Negotiating an Afghan Agreement?
Do the Taliban represent the Pashtuns?
Afghanistan asks ex-presidential contender to tackle corruption

Tehran Sets Conditions For Attending London Conference On Afghanista

Pakistan says reaches out to Afghan Taliban
Taking It to the Taliban
The Afghan Taliban's top leaders
How significant is Mullah Baradar's arrest?
Secret Joint Raid Captures Taliban’s Top Commander
What's the Quetta Shura Taliban and why does it matter?
What's behind latest Taliban attack on Kabul? See Images of the Attack By WSJ

Pakistan Version of Islam and Taliban ?????
Lahore fashion week takes on Talibanization in Pakistan

Loyalties of Those Killed in Afghan Raid Remain Unclear

After Attack, Afghans Question Motives or See Conspiracies
Gates: Taliban part of Afghan ‘political fabric’

IG: Afghan power-plant project ill-conceived, mismanaged

Taliban intensifies Afghan PR campaign

Taliban Overhaul Their Image in Bid to Win Allies
Karzai plans to woo Taliban with 'land, work and pensions'
Peace scheme mooted for Taliban
Bombs and baksheesh
But By All Means, Continue the Happy Talk on the Afghanistan War
Karzai Closing in on Taliban Reconciliation Plan
Last Exit Kabul
How To Get Out Without Forsaking Afghanistan's Stability
Afghan Recovery Report: Taleban Buying Guns From Former Warlords

'Jesus Guns': Two More Countries Rethink Using Weapons with Secret Bible References

Gun bible quotes 'inappropriate'
Text of Joint declaration of Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan trilateral meeting
Garmsir Protest Shows Taleban Reach
Rugged North Waziristan harbors US enemies
The Arrogance of Empire, Detailed ( The Untold Story of Afghanistan )
Appointment of Afghan counter narcotics chief dismays British officials
In Afghanistan attack, CIA fell victim to series of miscalculations about informant
Rebuilding Afghanistan: Will government take hold in this post-Taliban town?
Rare bird discovered in Afghan mountains
Blackwater, now called Xe, in running for work in Afghanistan despite legal woes
How Soviet troops stormed Kabul palace
Afghan children 'die in fighting'
Afghanistan war: Russian vets look back on their experience
U.N. Officials Say American Offered Plan to Replace Karzai 
Learning From the Soviets
U.S. faults Afghan corruption body's independence
Intensify fight against corruption, says Afghan meeting
Afghan ministers cleared of charges
Drone aircraft in a stepped-up war in Afghanistan and Pakistan
U.S. Air Force Confirms 'Beast of Kandahar' Secret Stealth Drone Plane
Kissinger's fantasy is Obama's realit
Taliban shadow officials offer concrete alternative
Talking with the Taliban
20. Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart
'Yes, there was torture and people were certainly beaten': Afghan warden
Why we should leave Afghanistan
US pours millions into anti-Taliban militias in Afghanistan
Pakistan to US: Don't surge in Afghanistan, talk to Taliban
A Plan C for Afghanistan
Finding decent cabinet is Karzai's big challenge
A way to get around Karzai in Afghanistan
Corruption fight boosted by 'Afghan FBI'
US demands Afghan 'bribery court'
Afghanistan plans court for corrupt ministers
The man leading Afghanistan's anti-corruption fight
Win hearts and minds in Afghanistan to win the war
Gates blocks abuse photos release
New U.S. Afghan prison unveiled, rights groups wary
War in Afghanistan: Not in our name
How the US Funds the Taliban
Afghan gov't says UN representative out of line
Cabinet of Warlords
Afghanistan and the lessons of history
Clinton says Karzai ‘must do better’
Recognizing the Limits of American Power in Afghanistan
After Afghanistan election, governors seek distance from 'illegal' Karzai
Karzai was hellbent on victory. Afghans will pay the price
Matthew Hoh: Please refute what I'm saying, we are stuck in the Afghan civil war
As US looks for exit in Afghanistan, China digs in
America's Top Diplomat Tells 'Nightline': 'Not Every Taliban Is al Qaeda'
Obama Can’t Make Russian Mistake in Afghanistan
10 Steps to Victory in Afghanistan
Will Obama change Afghan strategy?
Does the U.S. still have a vital interest in Afghanistan?
Pashtuns and Pakistani
The Afghan '80s are back
Pashtun peace prophet goes global
Afghan Road Builder's Dream Thwarted by Violence
A white elephant in Kabul
The Afghan Runoff: Will It Be a No-Show Election?

Ashraf Ghani- Afghanistan's Disputed Election Complicates U.S. Strategy

On Assignment: Into the Maw at Marja

Patrick Witty & Tyler Hicks
The New York Times


Afghanistan Cross Road CNN


The last frontier


Bruce Richardson
 

Articles

CIA: Buying peace in Afghanistan?

With Bags of Cash, C.I.A. Seeks Influence in Afghanistan
CIA Ghost Money: Karzai Confirms U.S. Gives Funds To Afghan National Security Team
What the CIA’s cash has bought for Afghanistan

Khalilzad: A Satan Whispering in the Hearts of Men
The Afghan trust deficitt
Will We Learn Anything from Afghanistan? Part 1
Getting Out of Afghanistan: Part 2
William R. Polk
General’s Defense on Afghan Scandal Ducks Key Evidence
Afghans want Taliban peace talks
Bombing Weddings in Afghanistan: It Couldn't Happen Here, It Does Happen There
Hekmatyar's never-ending Afghan war
Covert American Aid to the Afghan Resistance; A Top-Secret U.S. Foreign Policy Plot to Induce and Effect Soviet Military Intervention
Afghan brain drain fears as Karzai urges education reforms

US considers launching joint US-Afghan raids in Pakistan to hunt down militant groups

Real security in Afghanistan depends on people's basic needs being met
Intractable Afghan Graft Hampering U.S. Strategy
Former Taliban Officials Say U.S. Talks Started
Taliban ready for talks with US, not Karzai government
Emboldened Taliban Try to Sell Softer Image
Leaked NATO Report Shows Pakistan Support For Taliban
Insight: Few options for Afghan, U.S. leaders after Kandahar massacre
Presenter: Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta and Daoud Sultanzoy, Tolo Television
NATO’s measured exit plan in Afghanistan faces new obstacles
BFP Exclusive: Karzai Clan Attorney Threatens US Journalist, Uses Intimidation Tactics
Afghanistan Chronicles
Arduous path to Afghan 'end-game'
Fear in the classrooms: is the Taliban poisoning Afghanistan's schoolgirls?
A comment on the recent events of student poisoning in Afghanistan
Rape Case, in Public, Cites Abuse by Armed Groups in Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s Peace Talks Hit Brick Wall
THE ANATOMY OF US’S DEFEAT IN AFGHANISTAN
VOICES OF EMPIRE: FROM CIA’s CULTURAL GREAT GAME TO GLOBAL GREAT GAME TODAY
WHITE PAPER FOR THE PERMANENT PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN
King Karzai
A Federal System of Government is Not Suitable for Afghanistan
CHINA AMO DARYA OIL DEAL
Analysis: Where Afghan humanitarianism ends and development begins
U.S. Envoy: Kabulbank Was 'Vast Looting Scheme'
Speaking with the enemy: how US commanders fight the Taliban during the day and dine with them at night
Afghanistan: Operation Enduring Musery
How to Win Peace in Afghanistan
For Karzai, Stumbles On Road To Election
Cruel human toll of fight to win Afghan peace
Criticism of Afghan War Is on the Rise in Britain
Troops 'fighting for UK's future'
Operation in Taliban hotbed a test for revamped U.S. strategy
Covering Crucial Afghanistan Operation
Afghans still skeptical about Obama
US Defence Department struggling with public release of report on bombing in Afghanistan
Afghanistan on the Edge
Q+A: Who are the Pakistani Taliban insurgents?
Afghanistan Past & Present
Bombs for Pashtoons and Dollars for Punjab
Help! I'm being outgunned on K Street!
ANGELS CHASING DEMONS: “Jesus Killed Mohammad”!
U.S. tested 2 Afghan scenarios in war game
America's Top Diplomat Tells 'Nightline': 'Not Every Taliban Is al Qaeda'
Obama hearing range of views on Afghanistan
What Do Afghans Want? Withdrawal - But Not Too Fast - and A Negotiated Peace
Will Obama change Afghan strategy?
What Do Afghans Want? Withdrawal - But Not Too Fast - and A Negotiated Peace
Afghans tricked into U.S. trip, detained
In the Afghan War, Aim for the Middle
Obama pulled two ways in Afghanistan
Obama Can’t Make Russian Mistake in Afghanistan
10 Steps to Victory in Afghanistan
Gates: Mistake to set time line for Afghan withdrawal
Afghans question what democracy has done for them
High stakes in Afghan vote recount
Two Perspectives On Resolving The Afghan Postelection Crisis
Does the U.S. still have a vital interest in Afghanistan?
Pashtuns and Pakistanis
The Afghan '80s are back
How to Lose in Afghanistan
US in Afghanistan proposes revamped strategy
US 'needs fresh Afghan strategy'
US looks to Vietnam for Afghan tips
Lessons from Vietnam on Afghanistan
Afghan Pres. Skips Country's 1st TV Debate
A proud moment for Afghanistan
Rival to Karzai Gains Strength in Afghan Presidential Election
Afghan presidential candidate withdraws in Karzai's favor
America and international law
Hamid Karzai pulls out of historic TV debate just hours before broadcast
Karzai says no to first Afghanpresidential debate
Afghan election: Can Karzai's rivals close the gap?
Karzai opponents hope to beat him in second round
Afghanistan's Election Challenges
For Karzai, Stumbles On Road To Election
Pentagon Seeks to Overhaul Prisons in Afghanistan
Cruel human toll of fight to win Afghan peace
Karzai’s gimmick
Well-known traffickers set free ahead of election
US president sets Afghan target
U.S. Inaction Seen After Taliban P.O.W.’s Died
Why the Pentagon Axed Its Afghanistan Warlord
Earn our trust or go, Afghans tell GIs
The Irresistible Illusion
Running Out Of Options, Afghans Pay For an Exit
We've lost sight of our goal in Afghanistan
$2,000 for a dead Afghan Child, $100,000 for Any American Who Died Killing it
The strategy is sound – but success is not assured
Operation in Taliban hotbed a test for revamped U.S. strategy
Covering Crucial Afghanistan Operation
Pentagon Seeks to Overhaul Prisons in Afghanistan
Echoes of Vietnam
A Response To General Dostum
Obama orders probe of killings in Afghanistan
Obama admin: No grounds to probe Afghan war crimes
US president sets Afghan target
U.S. Inaction Seen After Taliban P.O.W.’s Died
Afghanistan's Election Challenges
The Irresistible Illusion
Earn our trust or go, Afghans tell GIs
Running Out Of Options, Afghans Pay For an Exit

We've lost sight of our goal in Afghanistan

The strategy is sound – but success is not assured
Stakes High in Afghanistan Ahead of August Elections
$2,000 for a dead Afghan Child, $100,000 for Any American Who Died Killing it
Ex-detainees allege Bagram abuse
Petraeus Is a Failure -- Why Do We Pretend He's Been a Success?
Fierce Battles and High Casualties on the Frontlines of Afghanistan
End the Illegal, Immoral and Wasted War in Afghanistan, says BNP Defence Spokesman
Outside View: Four revolutions
Pakistan's Plans for New Fight Stir Concern
France: liberty, equality, and fraternity – but no burqas
 

 

 

 

 

Echoes of Vietnam

Even the Coalition commanders in Afghanistan wonder if they can win the war
Will history repeat itself in Afghanistan?

British military intervention in Afghanistan has a chequered history, making it easy to conclude that British forces will fail again


 


KABUL’S HORIZONS  
Source: The Telegraph By: Krishnan Srinivasan  

The end to the long war in Afghanistan is likely to be untidy

Foreign interventions were habitual during the process of Afghan nation-formation in the 19th and 20th centuries; they were usually resisted, and contributed nothing to the welfare of the Afghans, who harbour a well-known and well-merited aversion to foreigners. The present Afghan war has been going on for more than 30 years and, during those years, several million Afghans were killed and more than 10 million have fled, leaving 28 million in the country. Almost all the great powers tested their military hardware there, promises of peace and democracy degenerated into more war and devastation, and uncountable fruitless operations resulted in bloodshed, hatred, horror, and an increase in drug production.

The Taliban, ruling Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, are best remembered for barbaric Islamist practices and the wanton destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas. From 2001 onwards, under United Nations security council resolutions, an international security assistance force was set up, initially to protect the government of Hamid Karzai, and then to eliminate al Qaida and combat insurgents. The ISAF has 100,000 troops from the United States of America and 40,000 from 48 other countries engaged in what is already the longest military exercise in US history. But there is no international consensus on the limits or objectives of intervention. The Americans themselves seem hardly to know why they are there. They assert they have no quarrel with the Afghans; it is only al Qaida that is the enemy. Speaking to me at the time of the ISAF’s creation, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, then the secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, envisaged an early withdrawal when democracy and rule of law were established in Afghanistan. That type of nation-building did not succeed in Kosovo or Albania or Bosnia in Europe: how was it ever possible in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan is portrayed as the most acute security problem in the world, and the Taliban as a threat to regional and global peace. Is terror contained because of the presence of the ISAF or Nato? The answer depends on the definition of the Taliban. People everywhere have heard of these Afghan ‘students’, but to describe their objectives, apart from the removal of foreigners from their country, is problematic. Despite the presence of the ISAF, 65 per cent of Afghanistan is under Taliban sway. The Talibs are now vastly different from the pre-2001 variety, being younger, more skilled at propaganda, and closer to al Qaida, Wahabis and Salafis. They have better tactics, use guerrilla methods and are entrenched even in urban areas. They obtain widespread Afghan respect because they are seen as fully opposed to foreigners. Karzai himself describes the Talibs as ‘disenfranchised brothers’, thereby confusing the people and his army.

The Karzai government’s control continuously shrinks in the face of the Taliban, and security deteriorates every year. Al Qaida has been disrupted by the US offensive and the death of Osama bin Laden but jihadi terrorism will continue for as long as it has the support of the Pakistan State. The Taliban are far from degraded owing to their safe havens in Pakistan. Calling Pakistan the “epicentre” of global terrorism, Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, has said that America cannot succeed in Afghanistan unless terrorist safe havens in Pakistan are shut down. So the prime obstacle to removing the threat of terror is clearly identified.

The ISAF’s aim to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat” al Qaida and its principal backers, the Taliban, has been modified more realistically. This year, according to President Barack Obama, the US will start transferring out of Afghanistan and 2014 is the timeline to shift authority to Kabul. This is made easier by bin Laden’s demise. The immediate goal is to secure an agreement with the Taliban because the Afghan army and police cannot cope with internal and external threats unless the level of threat is reduced. This exit strategy is only about exit and not strategy, according to Henry Kissinger.

Afghanistan must prepare for the reality of US military withdrawal. There is wide disapproval of the Afghan campaign in the US and in all Nato countries, making it politically impossible to stay on. The US military budget, at this time of economic strife, is higher than the rest of the world combined, and the ratio between the highest and the average incomes in the US is an unacceptable 120:1. American troops may remain in Kandahar and former Soviet-era bases, not for the sake of Afghanistan, but to maintain surveillance over Pakistan’s nuclear facilities that are vulnerable to terrorists. Washington will not make this public, unless it is obliged to by domestic political considerations.

There has been some development in Afghanistan; it is not a medieval or broken state. There have been advances since 2001 with regard to media and civil society, roads, railways and power. Six million children go to school, of whom 38 per cent are girls. In 2001, only one million were in school, all boys. There is primary health in two-thirds of the country as opposed to 10 per cent in 2001. But there are setbacks in economy and security, rule of law, corruption and narcotics, and human rights abuses are perpetrated both by the government and the insurgents. Reconstruction in Afghanistan needs prolonged engagement with the West and the UN since it will need huge funding. The US says it is committed to Afghanistan’s development but, as the largest donor, its aid has too closely been tied to counter-insurgency strategies, with the blurring of humanitarian and military objectives.

In politics too, there have been serious errors. External controls over governance have weakened moves for Afghan self-government. The Afghans have a tradition of decentralized authority, whereas the US stresses a strong centre, though it simultaneously undermines it by dealing directly with warlords and local power groups. Sub-governance is probably the answer, but all Afghans will oppose American suggestions of balkanization into quasi-sovereign provinces or seven administrative units that correspond roughly to ethno-political divisions. There is corruption at all levels, with the ISAF itself guilty of paying protection money to local warlords. Counter-narcotics policies are not succeeding, and non-governmental organizations act like parallel authorities. The polity is a hybrid between the traditional and the modern, and debates about a presidential or a parliamentary system and the role of shuras and jirgas in any future dispensation continue. Despite the problems in determining legitimacy, the West will have to relax its control over outcomes. Elections have failed to produce an Afghan voice, and the old forms of consensus-building like the shura and jirga have not succeeded.

In the search for a solution, various regional approaches have been mooted, especially since diverse ethnicities in Afghanistan need reconciliation. The ethno-linguistic complexities are immense, with Pashtun, Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara majorities living outside the country and only the minority within Afghanistan. The neighbours act out competing and conflicting interests, as do outsiders like Saudi Arabia with its profound links with the Taliban. Pakistan wants to exclude any Indian influence in what it regards as its backyard; Iran cannot accept Shias being treated as apostates by Wahabis; China fears Uighur contamination by Islamic extremism; Central Asia fears narcotics and terrorism. The US refuses to involve Iran, while any armed action against Iran by the US or Israel will hugely increase radicalism in the Middle East and Central Asia with unpredictable consequences. Pakistan can be a deal-maker or deal-breaker, but a Pakistani brokered peace will not be acceptable to its neighbours or to all the Afghans.

There is no such thing as a card-carrying Taliban. Pashtuns and Talibs are not synonymous and the Taliban are not monolithic. The Talibs are in at least three formations — Mullah Omar’s Quetta Shura, Haqqani in North Waziristan (with a strong Arab element and attached to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence) and the Pakistani Taliban. Each Taliban group has a different leadership with different agendas. The Taliban are more of a ‘movement’ intending to defeat ISAF/Nato and reclaim Afghanistan. Ethnicity and Islam are not cementing factors, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the mujahid of anti-Soviet vintage, is a constant spoiler, and the Taliban will not cohere after any settlement and the Nato troops’ withdrawal.

But moves for a settlement are constantly afoot and will now accelerate. Karzai is moving closer to regarding Pakistan as essential for his continuation, and Burhanuddin Rabbani, a former Afghan president, is acting as his intermediary with the Quetta Shura, though the US does not want Mullah Omar in the reconciliation process. The process among the various players is highly opaque. There are whispers of future talks, perhaps in the Gulf, or in Turkey. The broad principles could be no partition, no single outside power to be dominant, no handover to Pakistan, no reversion to the status quo, no imposed neutrality, the Afghans to own the process, and Afghanistan’s independence and sovereignty to be guaranteed by Pakistan.

It is unlikely that any talks will be fruitful unless there is a prior end to combat operations, and in addition to insurgents, any negotiation must include formal and informal power holders, and should ideally include obligations to human rights and accountability — though enforcement will be impossible. But there is a saying in Afghanistan: “In principle, no compromise; in compromise, no principle.” And that, finally, is likely to be the untidy and unsatisfactory outcome.

 

 

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